“Xanadu” is a 1980 musical film starring Olivia Newton-John. The subtitle of the film includes the words: “A place where dreams come true.” It was an awful movie, but I had a huge crush on the star actress as a young boy, and that may have led me to believe in a sort of Xanadu. I felt then — and I feel now — that with dedicated work and determination, dreams can come true. This is America, after all. Unfortunately, for every wonderful dream, there is also a horrendous nightmare. We may be seeing the latter in our economy soon.
Kevin Kamen is the president and CEO of Kamen & Co. Group Services, a New York company of media appraisers, accountants and brokers. I read his email yesterday morning with great interest: “With geopolitical turmoil, inflation soaring and U.S. growth issues in the conversation daily, I predict the Feds might indeed have their hands full avoiding a double-dip recession. Things are not looking great. When the Feds increase interest rates to combat inflation, it almost always portends an economic slowdown. History has shown this to be true. The Feds have now increased interest rates the last two times they have gathered, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell seems inclined to continue raising interest rates each time they will meet over the next year-plus. … Investors are worried, and those who own tech and multi-media stock are deeply concerned about the valuations of their portfolios. They should be.”
Keep in mind that Kevin is a broker and makes a living helping people buy and sell media companies. His email continued with, “The value of your business is not going to increase when the economy is in turmoil and the dollar’s value is diminished. Interest rates will continue to increase, and borrowing money will become more expensive and, for some, out of reach.”
I am not interested in selling our media company, but I am interested in buying, so I listen and read attentively about the state of our economy.
I was visiting with a CPA a few days ago about the worker shortage. He commented quite confidently, “That will only be a problem for a few more months. As construction and real estate slow down, everything else will, too. Couple that with the decrease in government handouts, and people will be looking for jobs again. There just won’t be as many to choose from — very soon.”
As much as I would like to see our country’s employment problems improve, I hope he is wrong. A shrinking economy is not the solution we seek. I pride myself in being an optimist — a Xanadu seeker — and I have made a living finding opportunities where others have given up. I also recognize the political spin that is used to steer agendas. I am an optimist, yes, but I am a realist, too. Regardless, opportunities will most certainly arise, but we better hold on tight.
Have a thoughtful Thursday, and thanks for reading.
Shane Goodman
President and Publisher
Big Green Umbrella Media
shane@dmcityview.com
515-953-4822, ext. 305 |
